According to the OVP inflation estimate of 41.5%, civil servants and retired civil servants will receive a 9.46% raise.

Social Security Chief Expert İsa Karakaş stated, “Considering the Medium-Term Program (OVP) year-end inflation expectation of 41.5%, we can say that a raise of 9.46% is anticipated for civil servants and civil servant retirees.”

With only a few days left until the new year, millions of civil servants and civil servant retirees are focused on the raise rates to be announced in January. Critical data is beginning to emerge regarding the salary increases, which occur twice a year in January and July, influenced by inflation differences and collective agreement rates. According to the latest data, the 3-month inflation difference that will affect the raise rate for civil servants and retirees has been determined to be 8.92%. In statements to İhlas News Agency reporters, Social Security Chief Expert İsa Karakaş reported that if the OVP’s inflation estimate of 41.5% comes true, civil servants and civil servant retirees will receive approximately a 9.46% raise.

“The 3-month inflation rate of 8.93% remains below the 10% collective agreement difference”

He reminded that unlike SSK and BAĞ-KUR retirees, civil servants and civil servant retirees receive raises not only based on the inflation rate but also dependent on the collective agreement. Karakaş stated, “In the last raise in July 2024, civil servants received a raise of 19.31%, which included a 10% rate from the collective agreement and a 9.31% inflation difference. If an inflation difference exceeding the 10% rate in the collective agreement arises for the raise in January, we need to add this rate to the 6% rate expected in the collective agreement for January 2025. Therefore, in this way, we can determine the raises for both civil servants and civil servant retirees. Currently, as the rate of 8.93% is below 10%, we can say that there is a zero raise reflection for both civil servants and civil servant retirees as of today,” he explained.

“According to the OVP’s inflation expectation, a 9.46% raise is anticipated for civil servants and civil servant retirees”

Considering the inflation rates for October, November, and December, Karakaş mentioned the raise rate for civil servants and civil servant retirees: “Taking into account the Medium-Term Program (OVP) year-end inflation expectation of 41.5%, we can say that a 9.46% raise is anticipated for civil servants and civil servant retirees. However, there are expectations in surveys and analyses that this 41.5% rate will be exceeded, with impressions suggesting it may surpass 43%. In this context, a raise of around 10% for civil servants and civil servant retirees will be likely,” he assessed.

“Civil servants and civil servant retirees will receive raises below the inflation rate by 4-5%”

Karakaş pointed out that civil servants and civil servant retirees will receive raises below the inflation rate based on current rates, stating, “When we reach January 2025, while SSK and BAĞ-KUR retirees are expected to receive a 15% raise in light of the anticipated inflation data, civil servants and civil servant retirees will receive around a 10% raise. In this case, civil servants and civil servant retirees will have received raises that are about 4-5% below inflation.”