The ATB July Assembly convened

The Antalya Commodity Exchange (ATB) July Assembly Meeting was held in the Assembly Hall under the chairmanship of ATB Assembly President Erdoğan Ekinci.

ATB Assembly President Erdoğan Ekinci expressed his condolences to ATB Vice President Halil Bülbül and his family for the loss of his mother. Ekinci also expressed his sadness over the passing of Antalya Chamber of Commerce and Industry President Ali Bahar, stating, “I offer my condolences on behalf of our Assembly to Ali Bahar who lost his life in a tragic accident at a young age, to the Bahar family, the business community, and his loved ones. May he rest in peace.”

During the meeting, where members were informed about the management’s one-month work, ATB Board Chairman Ali Çandır made evaluations regarding agriculture, the economy, and the city. Çandır expressed his sorrow over the passing of Halil Bülbül’s mother, Hikmet Bülbül, stating, “I pray for mercy for the deceased and wish good health and patience to my brother Halil and his family. May her place be paradise.” While remembering ATSO President Ali Bahar in the Assembly, Çandır said, “The death of Ali Bahar, the President of the Antalya Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ATSO), whom we lost in a tragic accident, deeply affected us all. I pray for mercy for my brother Ali, and I offer my condolences to his family, loved ones, and our community. May his place be paradise.”

“While food prices are falling worldwide, they are rising here”

Çandır stated that the business world is directly or indirectly affected by events occurring in the country, the world, and competitor countries, saying:
“As you may recall, in 2019, the OECD and FAO prepared a joint report titled ‘2019-2028 Agricultural Outlook’. Essentially, they stated that they predict an annual increase of 1% in agricultural consumption and 1.2% in production over the next 10 years. In fact, they update this outlook report every year. The first five years of this prediction occurred worldwide. However, the developments in our country have been quite complicated. For example, in the last five years, our agricultural production increased by 17% in tonnage (increased from 117.3 million tons to 136.9 million tons). This increase is not due to an increase in our agricultural areas (on the contrary, they have decreased by 5%), but largely due to increased productivity and changes in production patterns. Thus, a higher increase than the world forecast has been achieved. However, while global agricultural and food prices fell by more than 20% during this period, we have seen incredible increases.

In other words, while production growth in the world exceeded consumption growth and prices fell for various reasons, our prices have risen despite production increases. To explain this paradox with the high profit ambition of our sector is nothing but a diversion from the target and burying one’s head in the sand. Because even the data from TÜİK supports our observation. According to TÜİK data, in the last five years; consumer prices (CPI) or demand inflation increased by 398%, while producer prices (PPI) or cost inflation increased by 610%. The dollar has increased by 600%. Gasoline increased by 523%, diesel by 587%, electricity by 313% with the latest increase, agricultural producer prices increased by 575%, and agricultural input prices increased by 470%.”

Sharing the survey results

Çandır mentioned that they encountered similar commercial evaluations in the survey conducted with ATB professional committee members in January and July, saying, “I would like to summarize the experiences and evaluations of our members who live in the business world and observe what is happening in the field.”

Regarding the survey results, Çandır shared the following:
“The rate of those expecting better economic conditions in the next six months is 11% for our country and 9% for Antalya. The proportion of those expecting an increase in their own trade in terms of quantity by the end of the year is 22%, while the proportion of those expecting an increase in turnover volumes above inflation is 11%. Those who stated that their costs increased above inflation in the first six months are at 91%, while those expecting cost increases above inflation by the end of the year are at 70%. The proportion of those who stated that their debts increased above inflation in the first six months is 61%, while the rate expecting an increase by the end of the year is 55%. Again, in the first six months, 45% of those who stated that their receivables increased above inflation, while the proportion expecting an increase above inflation by the end of the year is 54%. The rate of those who indicated that the most negative situation they faced in the first six months was cost increase and inflation is around 80%. If we were to make a clear, transparent, and definite synthesis from all official figures and evaluations of those living in the business world; those engaged in agricultural activities have increased their production at the cost of not being able to cover their costs. Those engaged in agricultural activities who cannot find additional capital or borrowing opportunities have been forced to leave the sector. Those engaged in agricultural activities have had to change their production patterns with their own efforts and forecasts. Those engaged in agricultural activities have turned to side businesses that would support these activities. Those engaged in agricultural activities have lost hope in agricultural support and incentives. Those engaged in agricultural activities are at the last stage of their search for new strategies and efforts to survive.”

“Inflation is cost-driven”

Çandır stated that the rational economic policy model has been implemented for approximately 1.5 years, saying, “During this time, we are seeking an exit from the existing bottleneck by cooling demand. However, we do not compromise on growth. Moreover, our primary observation is that inflation is demand-driven. However, the TÜİK data I shared earlier and the results of our surveys clearly show that inflation is cost-driven. In other words, I think we are making a mistake in our primary observation. The essential thing is to rein in excessive increases, primarily of managed and directed prices in our cost structure. We are monitoring when we will start doing this in policies and practices.”

Recalling that the average growth forecast for our country by institutions worldwide and in Turkey is around 3.6% this year, Ali Çandır stated, “They expect a growth rate of 2.7% in 2025. In other words, a more challenging year awaits us than 2024. We are faced with a growth forecast that is considerably below the average of the world and developing countries. This means that we will continue to offer relatively high interest rates in 2024 and 2025. This situation will create an unbearable environment for the business world that is forced to use credit. If the forecasts of these global and national institutions are to be realized, it is necessary to urgently provide the business world with sustainable credit opportunities. Otherwise, as I have shared with you for a long time, we may face unprecedented rates of inability to pay debts and company closures. Indeed, the recently announced June company closure and establishment data have again brought this danger to the agenda.”

Çandır noted that the volume of transactions with checks, one of the leading indicators of the functioning of trade, increased by 70% annually in Antalya and 84% nationwide in the first half of the year, stating:
“In other words, our city has not actually increased its trade in real terms. In the same period, the amount of bounced checks increased by 422% in our city, while the national average increased by 255%. The amount of protested promissory notes increased by 369% in our city, while the national average increased by 182%. The data on newly established and closed companies have continued to trend negatively for our city compared to the national average during this period. The number of newly established companies decreased by 40.4% in our city, while it decreased by 29.9% nationwide, and the number of closed companies increased by 21% in our city, while it increased by 8.3% nationwide. The export of our city in June was realized as 167 million dollars, decreasing by 0.7% compared to the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the export amounted to 1 billion 92 million dollars, showing a decrease of 0.6%. The decline in fresh fruit and vegetable exports had an impact on this decline. The fresh fruit and vegetable export of our city in June was 47 million dollars, showing a decrease of 8% compared to the same month last year. In the first six months, it decreased by 11% compared to the same period last year, totaling 361 million dollars. In fact, I have been sharing similar data with you every month since the beginning of the year, and our city is performing below the national economy. We should explore ways to correct this, share our suggestions, and work together for the future of our city.”

“Climate change threatens”

In his speech, President Ali Çandır emphasized climate change, stating, “Climate change threatens soil and water resources, and agriculture is among the sectors most affected by this situation.” He noted that ATB members have reported a deepening water problem in districts from Korkuteli and Elmalı to Aksu and Gazipaşa, stating, “While rainfall provides short-term relief, it does not offer a long-term solution to this problem. Effective water management is required for a solution. The crop pattern should be planned according to the water situation in the basins. It is necessary to switch to completely closed circuit irrigation systems. The issue of water harvesting should be urgently included in the public infrastructure investment planning.” Çandır emphasized that agriculture is not the only sector responsible for efficiently using water resources and combating climate change, stating, “From industry to the service sector, from public to households, we all must use water resources efficiently. Because we are all responsible for this change.”

Çandır mentioned that the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry has announced new livestock support for the first time based on performance and productivity for three years, stating, “We believe that the new model will be a good start. However, a sufficient impact analysis should be conducted on the results and shared with the relevant parties.” Çandır pointed out that Antalya benefited from the IPARD program, which supports agricultural investments, stating, “Indeed, in the first call period completed last month, a total of 527 million TL investment and 266 million TL grant support were applied for 25 projects from Antalya. A second call has also been announced within the scope of the program. I hope our members and all producers will benefit more from this call.” In the Assembly, members made evaluations related to their sectors.