The third world war has already begun

With the escalation of political tensions worldwide, concerns about the outbreak of the 3rd world war are increasing. Dr. Mehmet Turan Çağlar evaluated the possibility of a major war taking into account the recent events. Dr. Çağlar, who stated that ‘the 3rd world war has already begun,’ emphasized the importance of Turkey avoiding taking sides.
The terrorist attack in Russia, further tensions between Israel and Lebanon, occasional escalating crises in East Asia have led to the increasing sounds of the 3rd world war. While many politicians of various countries have started to mention the possibility of the 3rd World War, the words of Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan saying ‘there is a risk of the 3rd world war’ drew attention.
Dr. Mehmet Turan Çağlar, a faculty member in the Department of International Relations at Altınbaş University, evaluated recent events. Stating that ‘the basic logic of world wars traditionally defines the use of military force by major powers against each other,’ Çağlar said, ‘But the nature of war has changed. If we say that instead of major powers, different regional powers are fighting each other, then we have been in the 3rd world war for a long time. Major powers do not seem likely to fight each other in the near future, but there is rapidly escalating tension and major powers are unable to agree on key issues. Therefore, the risk of a third world war depends on how we define it. If it is a war between major powers, there is none at the moment. But if we use it to define a war between other powers, then we are already experiencing a third world war.’
“Military war as a last resort” Dr. Çağlar pointed out that military force is used as a last resort in wars, stating, ‘Due to the increasing destructiveness of wars, major powers use military force as a last resort. Therefore, they first implement economic sanctions or economic tools. They try to bring each other to their knees economically. That’s why the economy is the primary option. But as militarization increases, technology also starts to get involved. We know this from certain military technologies. Now there are not as many casualties or deaths as before. At the final stage, we may witness a very intense military escalation.’
“Problems will grow unless they are solved” When reminded of the words of Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan saying ‘the risk of the 3rd world war should be taken into account,’ Dr. Çağlar stated: ‘Especially the Russia-Ukraine war and the events between Israel and Gaza show that major powers are now inadequate in solving these problems. They cannot find a common ground. They cannot produce solutions, and violence and deaths are increasing every day. This also brings along the risk of escalation. Because the conflicts in Gaza today are not limited to Gaza alone. They sometimes spread to Lebanon, sometimes to Iran, sometimes to Syria. Minister Hakan Fidan is actually talking about this. So, as long as we do not solve these problems, the possibility of these problems growing is very high, and the possibility of affecting various parts of the world is also very high.’
“It is not easy for Turkey to persuade Russia” Dr. Mehmet Turan Çağlar, explaining what kind of foreign policy Turkey should pursue against the possibility of the 3rd world war, said, ‘Turkey must pursue a balanced policy as much as possible. Because we saw this in the Russia-Ukraine war. Conflicts happening in the immediate vicinity have the potential to directly affect Turkey. Therefore, Turkey must avoid being a direct party to a conflict. It must find solutions to the problems by using diplomatic channels, negotiation, and peaceful means. We saw the potential of this in the Russia-Ukraine war. Turkey advocates peaceful means, but it is not easy for Turkey to persuade Russia to anything. It also tries to bring diplomatic channels into play in the conflicts between Israel and Palestine. Turkey is trying to avoid direct conflict in both conflicts. This actually shows that avoiding conflict is logical for Turkey.’
“The reason for the terrorist attack in Russia is ontological conflicts” Evaluating the terrorist attack in Russia, Çağlar emphasized that the source of the attack is ontological conflicts, saying, ‘Especially radical groups see major powers, especially Russia, as the main cause of global inequality. Therefore, the main targets of these radical groups are the US, Russia, sometimes China, and certain European countries. Due to the different dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine war, the parties tend to blame each other. However, the fundamental ontological conflict there symbolizes the conflict between radical groups and major powers. These groups argue that there is injustice in the world and that the main cause of this injustice is major powers. Therefore, these radical groups will continue to attack countries they see as targets, regardless of the country, whenever they find the opportunity.’